Investment Outlook for Japanese Equities

Despite ongoing uncertainty, our Japan portfolio managers maintain a disciplined, long-term perspective, investing in quality companies at attractive valuations.   

April 2025

The Japanese stock market has recently experienced notable declines, yet this downturn presents a strategic opportunity to invest in high-quality companies at attractive valuations. This outlook is supported by improving economic sentiment, driven by Japan’s transition from deflation to inflation, as well as strengthened corporate governance and enhanced capital efficiency.

Positive Economic Trends

It appears that Japan’s economy is entering a virtuous cycle marked by rising prices and wage growth. Resilient domestic demand and labor shortages are leading to steady wage hikes. In the 2025 spring wage negotiations, the Japanese Trade Union Confederation (Rengo) reported an average wage increase of 5.46%, surpassing the 2024 figure of 5.28%. Small and medium-sized enterprises also showed progress, with an average wage increase of 5.09%, up from 4.42% in 2024.

Furthermore, corporate governance reforms would continue to drive shareholder value. Japanese companies are increasingly prioritizing capital efficiency, leading to record-high shareholder returns through dividends and share buybacks. These developments suggest that Japan’s domestic economy is well-positioned for continued strength.

Impact of U.S. Trade Policies

The United States accounts for 20% of Japan’s total exports, with automobiles representing over 30% of this total. If the proposed reciprocal tariffs of up to 24% on Japanese goods are enacted, analysts estimate Japan’s GDP could decline by approximately 1%. This scenario poses two primary risks:

1.    The Bank of Japan (BOJ) may delay interest rate hikes to mitigate economic impact.
2.    There is a potential risk of industrial hollowing, as production may shift overseas.

The most likely scenario is a delay in rate hikes by the BOJ, with the risk of industrial hollowing considered minimal. Policymakers have emphasized that these tariffs represent maximum levels, and Japan’s government is actively pursuing concessions rather than retaliatory measures. As a result, many analysts believe the worst-case tariff scenario has already been factored into stock valuations.

Additionally, heightened uncertainty has also led Japanese corporate management to adopt conservative earnings guidance, which may create temporary volatility in share prices. However, this period of adjustment could mark the exhaustion of near-term negative catalysts, providing a clearer outlook for investors in the months ahead.

Changes in Japan-China Relations

Amid escalating US-China tensions, it is increasingly likely that the Chinese government is taking steps to improve its relationship with Japan. This development creates favorable conditions for Japanese companies looking to expand their operations in China. However, investors should recognize that high valuations are unlikely to be assigned to the Chinese operations of such companies.

Key Risk Factors

The primary risk lies in extreme yen appreciation (e.g., ¥100/USD levels), which could intensify deflationary pressures on import prices, reduce inbound tourism from Asia, and negatively impact the earnings performance of export-oriented companies.

The Compelling Opportunity in Japanese Equities

As Benjamin Graham wisely cautioned, investors must avoid reacting emotionally—becoming overly optimistic during rallies or excessively fearful during declines. At SPARX Asset Management (the Fund sub-advisor), we adhere to our founding investment philosophy of a bottom-up approach. We view the current market environment as an opportunity to invest in quality companies at attractive valuations. Japan’s economy appears to be strengthening as it shifts from deflation to inflation with improved sentiment, strong corporate governance, and increased capital efficiency. By maintaining a disciplined long-term perspective, we believe Japanese equities present compelling opportunities for growth and resilience in today’s market environment.

You might also like

Get insights and news delivered to you.

Sign up for updates

Learn how Hennessy approaches investing.

Our Philosophy

Let's work together to get you on your way.

Start Investing
Contact Us
Hennessy Funds
7250 Redwood Boulevard, Suite 200
 Novato, CA 94945
Follow Us

The Funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. The prospectus contains this and other important information about the investment company. Please read it carefully before investing. A hard copy of the prospectus can be requested by calling 1-800-966-4354.

Performance data quoted represents past performance; past performance does not guarantee future results. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor's shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Current performance of the Fund may be lower or higher than the performance quoted and can be found here. Performance data current to the most recent month end may be obtained from HennessyFunds.com Hennessy Funds Standardized Performance

Neither forward earnings nor earnings growth is a measure of a fund’s future performance.

Mutual fund investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. Current and future holdings are subject to risk. Small and medium-sized companies may have more limited liquidity and greater price volatility than larger companies. Investments in foreign securities may involve political, economic, and currency risks, greater volatility, and differences in accounting methods. The Focus, Total Return, Balanced, Large Cap Financial, Small Cap Financial, and Midstream Funds are considered non-diversified funds. A non-diversified fund, which may concentrate its assets in fewer individual holdings than a diversified fund, is more exposed to individual stock volatility than a diversified fund. A fund that concentrates its investments within one country, one sector, or a small group of industries, such as Japan, Technology, Financials, or Energy, may be subject to a higher degree of market risk. Investments in debt securities typically decrease in value when interest rates rise. The risk is greater for longer-term debt securities. Investments in lower-rated and non-rated securities present a greater risk of loss to principal and interest than higher-rated securities. Mortgage- and asset-backed securities are subject to prepayment risk, which is the risk that the borrower will prepay some or all of the principal owed to the issuer. Funds that invest in pooled investment vehicles (including ETFs) may experience higher fees. The formula-based strategy employed by some Funds may cause those Funds to buy or sell securities at times when it may not be advantageous.

ETFs are subject to additional risks that do not apply to conventional mutual funds, including the risks that the market price of an ETF’s shares may trade at a premium or discount to its net asset value, an active secondary trading market may not develop or be maintained, or trading may be halted by the exchange in which they trade, which may impact a Fund’s ability to sell its shares. Shares of any ETF are bought and sold at market price (not NAV) and are not individually redeemed from the Fund. Brokerage commissions will reduce returns.

ESG investing risk is the risk stemming from the Environmental, Social, and Governance factors that the Fund applies in selecting securities. The Fund intends to invest in companies with measurable high ESG ratings relative to their sector peers, and screen out particular companies that do not meet its ESG criteria. This may affect the Fund’s exposure to certain companies or industries and cause the Fund to forego certain investment opportunities. The Fund’s returns may be lower than other funds that do not seek to invest in companies based on ESG ratings. The Fund seeks to pursue its investment objective by using proprietary models that incorporate quantitative analysis. There is no guarantee that the Portfolio Managers’ use of these models will result in effective investment decisions for the Fund. From time to time, the Fund may concentrate its investments in one or more industry sectors. The Fund is currently substantially invested in the Consumer Discretionary and Health Care sectors and its performance is therefore tied closely to, and affected by, developments in these industries.

Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) and MLP investments have unique characteristics. A Fund does not receive the same tax benefits as a direct investment in an MLP.

The prices of MLP units may fluctuate abruptly and trading volume may be low, making it difficult for a Fund to sell its units at a favorable price. MLP general partners have the power to take actions that adversely affect the interests of unit holders. Most MLPs do not pay U.S. federal income tax at the partnership level, but an adverse change in tax laws could result in MLPs being treated as corporations for federal income tax purposes, which could reduce or eliminate distributions paid by MLPs to the Fund. If the Energy Transition Fund’s MLP investments exceed 25% of its assets, it may not qualify for treatment as a regulated investment company (“RIC”) under the Internal Revenue Code (“Code”), and the Fund would be taxed as an ordinary corporation, which could substantially reduce its net assets and its distributions to shareholders. The Midstream Fund is treated as a regular corporation, or “C” corporation, for U.S. federal income tax purposes, and therefore, is subject to U.S. federal income tax on its taxable income at the graduated rates applicable to corporations (currently a maximum rate of 21%) as well as state and local income taxes. The Midstream Fund will not benefit from current favorable federal income tax rates on long-term capital gains, and Fund income and losses will not be passed on to shareholders. The Midstream Fund accrues deferred income taxes for future tax liabilities associated with the portion of MLP distributions considered to be a tax-deferred return of capital and for any net operating gains as well as capital appreciation of its investments. This deferred tax liability is reflected in the daily NAV, and as a result, the Fund’s after-tax performance could differ significantly from the underlying assets even if the pre-tax performance is closely tracked.

Glossary of Terms contains definitions and additional information.

To view the top 10 holdings of a Fund, please click the Fund name: Cornerstone Growth, Focus, Cornerstone Mid Cap 30, Cornerstone Large Growth, Cornerstone Value, Total Return, Equity and Income, Balanced, Energy Transition, Midstream, Gas Utility, Japan, Japan Small Cap, Large Cap Financial, Small Cap Financial, Technology. Fund holdings are subject to change and not recommendations to buy or sell any security.

Opinions expressed are subject to change at any time, are not guaranteed, and should not be considered investment advice.

News and Media Page:

To view the Morningstar ratings for the Japan Fund, please click here. (Media - TD Ameritrade)

To view the Morningstar ratings for the Focus Fund, please click here. (Media - CNBC-B. Macualey).

1 USD = 105.36 Yen as of 07/27/2020 (Media - Ticker - M. Takeda)

Tom White is a TD Ameritrade Network contributor and is not affiliated with the Hennessy Funds. Content is not investment advice, or a recommendation of any security, strategy, or account type. Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors as the special risks inherent to options trading may expose investors to potentially rapid and substantial losses.(Media - TD Ameritrade-Rothberg)

To view the Morningstar ratings, please click here.

The Hennessy Funds are offered only to United States residents, and information on this web site is intended only for such persons. Nothing on this web site should be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell shares of any Hennessy Fund in any jurisdiction where the offer or solicitation would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.

Quasar Distributors, LLC, Distributor.

Subscribe for Updates

*Required Fields